SCSU’s Banaian: We “May” Be in a Recession Now
The talk of recession in the United States has been going on for months. St. Cloud State Dean, School of Public Affairs and Economic Professor King Banaian says we may be in a recession now and if not now, soon. Banaian had indicated a month ago the recession was likely coming at the end of 2022 but that timeline may have moved up.
Banaian says the length of a typical recession is 6 to 9 months which would likely have us pulling out of the recession sometime in the summer of 2023. He says all recessions are different. Banaian explained that this is not the COVID recession or like the 2008 housing financial crisis. He says this one is similar to the previous recessions from 2003 to 2007 where the recession is shallow going in without a huge decline in Gross Domestic Product which also means it is shallow going out without a big increase in GDP. Banaian expects the recovery from this recession to be slow. He says the signs of coming out of a recession would be an increase in orders, a rebound in the stock market and an increase in industrial production.
The worker shortage continues to impact much of the country including Central Minnesota. Banaian believes people still have savings accumulated from the pandemic and despite wage increases not keeping up with with inflation don't need to take the 2nd job to make ends meet yet. Banaian says about 1,100 people, 16 and older, in Central Minnesota who were working prior to the pandemic have not gone back to work. He says that is 1% of the population.
If you'd like to listen to my conversation with King Banaian it is available below.
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