Is It Me Or Has The Weather Forecasts Been ‘Off’ Recently?

I don't know about you, but I've started to notice that the weather forecasts that I've been reading seem to be more fiction than fact, at least in terms of precipitation amounts. Now I know predicting the weather isn't precise, and there are all kinds of variables, but there have been some BIG swings and misses in the last week.

Going into this weekend, I was preparing for a snownomi of epic proportions, 3-5 inches of new snow on Saturday into Sunday, but when I woke up Sunday morning, hopeful for a big blanket of snow, all I got was less than an inch of snow.

Then, fast-forward to Monday, when I learn of another potential BIG snow event, with inches of new snow expected here in the Saint Cloud area, and again I wake up to some slushy roads with some snow in the grass. What's going on with the forecasts?

NPR in Kansas City reported this morning that a lack of weather balloon launches will affect the ability to forecast possible severe weather in the Great Plains, like Nebraska and South Dakota.

"National Weather Service offices across the country are suspending or reducing weather balloon flights due to low staffing. Meteorologists say the loss of data could lead to forecasting challenges and less accurate long-term outlooks."

We talked this morning with Cara Foster of Weatherology and I asked her about what prediction models they are using, as I had heard a rumor they were using just the European prediction model versus the American model, and she did confirm they were using data from both, but lately the European data has been more accurate.

An example she gave us was that the current storm, when using the American model, called for 21" of snow to fall, whereas the European model was calling for 3-8" across the state, depending on where you were.

Now I understand we still have to get through the day today, but are we going to get another 8"? It will all depend on other factors like wind, temperature, etc.

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We will do our best to keep you prepared for whatever weather you may get, but know we are just going off what the professionals are telling us.