How Likely Is A White Christmas This Year In Minnesota?

While a white Christmas in Minnesota is never a sure thing, odds across most of the state are usually in its favor. Here in St. Cloud we have a historical probability of about 75% that our Christmases will be white-- but what about this year? Here's what the experts are saying.

A white Christmas is defined by at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. Looking at historical weather data going back 54 years, St. Cloud has a 74% chance of having at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas-- with a 41% chance of having at least five inches, and just an 11% chance of having ten inches or more for Santa to land on.

Some spots in Minnesota have never missed out on a white Christmas for as long as the National Weather Service has been keeping records, including Babbitt, Cloquet, Park Rapids, Remer, Roseau, Walker, Virginia, and Tower.

So now for the million-dollar question; 'Will we have a white Christmas this year in Minnesota?' 

According to Bob Weisman at St. Cloud State, Wednesday will be our best chance. Colder temps will be in place for a Tuesday Night/Wednesday storm, but it's still a little too early to tell.

Dave Dahl at KSTP-5 says, "All it takes is one inch of snow on the ground officially to be called a white Christmas, so I think we're going to get that before Christmas Day."

From the NWS: The heaviest rain will occur a bit farther east than initially thought today and Monday, but significant amounts will still occur in many areas. Winds will pick up late tonight and Monday morning across much of the area, with sustained speeds of 20-30 mph. Some accumulating snow is possible late Tuesday into Wednesday, particularly over the western portion of the area.

So you're sayin' there's a chance?